A Cheeky Disquisition on the Revenue Model

[AytchMan]

So there I was, minding my own bidness, running a poopy little regional carrier out of Austin, Texas when, all of a sudden, barely three years into the round, I became the proud owner of a 15-billion-euro behemoth.  Now, we've all been through this rant before:  the realism freaks versus the gee-whiz instant billionaires.  But correct me where I go off the track, er, flight path.

The admins want to maintain a, how can I put this delicately, INSANE revenue model for fear of scaring the horses.  Fine and good, that's their right, it's their game.  But here's the rub:  they are pursuing a self-defeating strategy.  The very blessing that they think they are bestowing upon the benighted beer-and-pretzellers is, in fact, a curse.  Here's why:  the game consists of two parts -- the expansion phase and the competition phase (the dreaded saturation that the pretzels detest).  The early expansion is fun -- building an airline, adding routes and bases.  It's easy -- and required if you want to win -- to build up a 100-plane, 300-route carrier in no time.  But then the competition kicks in.  And the pretzels become distraught because two things have occurred.  Their 300% annual growth rate has been reduced to 20% and they've been forced to enter the Spreadsheet Olympics.  And, yea verily, they become dyspeptic.  And they bring their angst to the forum, bemoaning the $1 routes and the saturation and the 10-frequency maniacs -- all, by the way, manifestations of normal, if aggressive, free-market competition.  Conditioned to the easy early profits, they rebel when the real game starts and their path to 500-Billion-EuroWorld is blocked.  And so they complain and/or leave the game.  So, I renew the call:  stop the madness, you're killing them with kindness.  The very blandishments you're tossing at them are driving them to distraction by making the second half of each round more tedious and difficult.  Cut the revenue growth by two-thirds.  By itself, this will rein in the frenzied early pace, reduce carpal-tunnel distress from the endless fare corrections by 80%, and reserve the bloodletting fare wars to the final years of the round.

For those of you gathering up torches and pitchforks, please answer this question first:  if I'm wrong, how do you explain why so many airlines drop out of each round after two years?

[StephenM]

Nice post.  

[iranair777]

let me be the first to comment. He has a point. I think the way is to create a few worlds for professional player. I personally have deicided to follow a real life airline and then I realise that I cannot cause AM has people with ridiculous prices. Not the fact that there is a high frequency, but for the fact that there is just to low fares on the freq's. Amount of frequencies per day doesn't determine the price that is being put on the route as each route is independant. we need a min valu eat which no one loses and no one gains a lot.

as I say again, professional worlds is the way. now we have MW up and running, new worlds with proper games is the answer. Professional worlds will be for people who play properly to real world airlines and dont charge E1 flights etc. Yes real world airlines do E1 flights, but not on routes out of major cities and not on bottlenecked routes

[StephenM]

I think the way is to create a few worlds for professional player.

Set them up when private worlds are available.

[iranair777]

I think the way is to create a few worlds for professional player.

Set them up when private worlds are available.

so your saying a public professional world is not possible? it is perfectly possible without resorting to passwords as the players who are playing properly can always report the ones who are not
btw, may I ask hun how long till private worlds is ready?

[Virgin Serbia]

I think the way is to create a few worlds for professional player.

What would be the definition of a professional player?  :?:

[StephenM]

so your saying a public professional world is not possible?

Show me where I said that.

[scottj63]

let me start by saying that i think "professional worlds" would be a nice addition, because half of me loves the game the way it is now, and the other half dreads having to change routes for the very reasons mentioned. It would be nice with a more realistic pricing, hell, overall economic model.

Secondly i think stephen would be a great politician judging by his posts (laughing)

scott in philippines

[Air Elbonia]

I will say that i do periodically make minor tweaks to the economic model to try to slow it down, with or without warning.  generally without warning, unfortunately, i can only pull off something that would pull a couple hundred thousand out of a given world's DOP without raising too much ire.

it is noted, truly is.  but i can only do so much without angry mobs (which seem inevitable).  I only hope that each tweak manages to push that chasm between active players and inactive players back an extra hour each time.

[pseudoswede]

Cut the revenue growth by two-thirds.  By itself, this will rein in the frenzied early pace, reduce carpal-tunnel distress from the endless fare corrections by 80%, and reserve the bloodletting fare wars to the final years of the round.

I will first say I agree with your post 100%. One problem this game faces is that, unlike in real life, 20-30 airlines don't suddenly appear at the same hub and all immediately start flying to the same destinations. The distribution of route profits between the airlines is what needs to be tweaked. Currently, I see it as more of a "spread the wealth" model--where you'd have to screw up intentionally to not turn a profit. However, the more you make it more of a "Darwin" model--where only a certain handful of airlines can make a profit on a route (similar to today's world)--I think you will actually create more of a environment where it's essential to continually monitor (i.e., adjust routes) in order to maintain a positive DOP.

Whereas real airlines have a large staff to monitor airfares, this game is all about a one-man shop. Unless you're running scripts to maintain your routes (which I suspect a few airlines are doing), you will find yourself in the red quickly.

[AustraliaConnect]

Your Mother is Fat

Sorry, I wanted to try that  

[Air Elbonia]

I just ran the math, actually, on a relatively recent update i made.  in world 3, 4, and 6 one small change i made should (when filtered through via update route) be pulling approximately 15 million out of the global DOP.  in smaller worlds, it's a much less impressive number, however it still should add up nicely.

[scottj63]

air elbonia, thank you for doing what you can, and for what you do. I think what you said about having pissed off players is a great reason to have a professional player game.

scott in philippines

[yourefired]

Trust me, the answer to the ridiculous competition problem isn't to cut the revenue model, it's to enable people to differentiate their product. More niche markets=less saturation=less competitive. Multiclass seating goes in the right direction. Adding flight time as a factor into the fare equation is another step in the right direction. The reason we have people mindlessly editing routes 16 times an hour is because they can't make any money any other way. When you promulgate a model that says that ONLY the person with the lowest price will make the most money, you are adding fuel to the fire of this ubercompetition.

When I create my private world, I'll be forced to restrict the world to 60 people and limit the player count to no more than 10 per continent to avoid oversaturation and give people space to roleplay. I like airline mogul, believe me, but it's nowhere near perfect.

To cut competition, one of three things needs to happen:
1. Curb the ridiculous growth rate (however let people start with larger planes)
2. Increase expenses to absurd highs (this has already been done)
3. Differentiation

The third is the best option in my opinion. Realistically, startups in infant industries (dotcoms in the 90's, airlines in the 50-60s, biotech now) DO have 300%+ growth rates. However growth slows when there's more entry. BUT, in the real world companies differentiate their products to shift their demand curves-when your product is ever so slightly different from a competitor's, or VERY different from a competitor's, price matters less. When you claim that a seat is a seat is a seat, people always go for the cheapest ticket and that exacerbates this ubercompetition.

[iranair777]

so your saying a public professional world is not possible?

Show me where I said that.

Above you said that 'Set them up when private worlds are available.' So you mean that you cannot create a new world for now which only has about 50 players for the public as a public world? I am saying that its possible to control the professionalism in that world if created by feedback from other players. Also I meant it to start up before private worlds.

btw, whens private worlds starting up?