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Messages - Cipher53

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16
"Capable of flying? Of course, but so are many warbirds.
The 707 is uncompetitive. It has too high a fuel burn compared to the competition. To update the 707 so that it would be competitive, you would have to fit 2 high bypass engines instead of 4, and fit an all-new wing, as well as lighten the weight through the use of lighter alloys and fitting of a lighter landing gear. The result is basically a 737, with the same flaws as the 737.
The 2 vs 4 engine issue is not a trend. It is simply the most practical way to save fuel. And in the future you will see fewer and fewer 4 engined aircraft, regardless of engine/fuel technology."

Apparently you aren't reading what I said, because I pretty much affirmed that nobody's going to use it. Also note that I never said a darn thing about revamping the aircraft and yet they could still PERFORM. And yes, 2 vs. 4 engines is a trend. If not for higher gas prices I'd bet there'd be more diversity in airliners, and we probably wouldn't be having this conversation right now because the concept of Boeing not reworking the 737 wouldn't be a problem.

"The numbers are simple. 1377x NEOs vs 185x MC-21 vs 100x C919 vs 0 737RE. How can that not be lopsided?"

The numbers are simple once you eliminate the fact that- like I'd originally stated- the 737RE does not exist off the design boards at Boeing. Both GPWestjet and I appear to be able to get this fact through our heads, get it through yours. In the meantime, I think I'll take a break from this "debate", as its apparent my words aren't having any positive effect with you.

"Yes, it is the biggest continent on the globe, but that only makes it more important for the manufacturers. Thats where the most money is. The asians tend not to care too much about buying Russian, Chinese or Japanese airliners either."

Once again, thanks for regurgitating what I said.

"Don't be silly. Dispatch reliability upon EIS - Entry Into Service. That means the first 1 or 2 planes. And comparing the dispatch reliability on EIS between different types makes sense, as the exact same number were in service upon EIS."

Yea, if a plane got through a rather rocky development period and got horrible EIS stats but went on to become a rather successful design I suppose you'd still hold it against it? Aviation isn't a perfect industry, and as a result I wouldn't put too much of my money into statistics.

"But you don't even seem to get the fact that there is a market outside the US... "

Actually I've admitted that I don't talk about the markets outside of the US, as that is where I am most knowledgeable. But then again, you don't seem to get the fact that a company needs market penetration and that the 737RE doesn't exist, so who are you to talk?

"As for those Eurocopters manufactured in China, thats not reverse engineering. Eurocopter sold them the rights (end equipment) to build them. They are entirely legitimate. The Zhi-15 is even developed in cooperation with Eurocopter."

Again, thanks for saying the exact same thing I said earlier.

"The Chinese have also begun building lots of equipment from the ground up. They've sent Taikonauts into space on homegrown spacecraft and rockets, and they have built the J-10 and JF-17 fighters, and even the J-20 stealth fighter, and no less than 2 stealth attack helicopters."

The J-10 relies on Russian goods to fly and was developed by the assets of the IAI Lavi program, the JF-17 is pretty much derived from their efforts in reverse engineering the MiG-21, and the J-20 is rumored to be based on what they've managed to hack out of us and the Russians. The rest I either don't have knowledge enough about or just plain out don't believe you about.

"Sorry, but you specifically mentioned the E-170"

Yea, in what I've heard personal accounts about Embraer's sucking. My original comment referencing that they've managed to fill a niche that nobody else has room in- in my opinion- was rather obviously referring to their mainstay products in the EMB-110/120/ERJ-135/145. Aside from Bombardier there's not another company with regional jets out there that is anywhere near as successful as Embraer is, and like I said earlier, Bombadiers have rather blatant performance issues from what I've heard.

Regardless, I take my break from this thread as it appears to be heading nowhere fast.

17
I wouldn't say that a 797 is "needed", but if Boeing wants to make any progression in terms of capability within the market in that area then yes. You also kinda missed my point with the 707 thing, it's well capable of performing in modern times but nobody's picked it up because the trend appears to be twin engine aircraft for all matter of operations, the 747 and A340 being the exceptions to the rule.

"But we are debating the prospects of the 737RE vs A320NEO, which is not limited to the confines of North America. World outlook is necessary when discussing these issues. More planes are sold in Asia than in North America. The success of the 737RE will depend on it's ability to sell in the big international markets."

No, it seems more like we're trying to tell you that there's no contest to be had here, and if there was one it wouldn't be as horribly lopsided as you're making it out to be. I won't contest the point that more planes may be sold in Asia, they're a developing area in terms of their economy and thus there are many airlines that are coming up within the area. You also have to look at the fact that Asia is the largest freaking continent on the globe, so yes it tends to make sense that the largest continent would have the most orders for aircraft in the world..  :-X

"The Sukhoi Superjet had a dispatch reliability of 98% when it entered service. Thats far better than what Boeing or Airbus have ever achieved upon EIS. Only after several months in service did the 777 or A380 reach 99%."

And how many aircraft were operating at the time when this statistic was made? I won't question the reliability of a Russian aircraft, despite their issues in the past generally anything Russian can go through the apocalypse and still run. Point was that in the past Soviet airliners sucked, which is why manufacturers like Airbus and Boeing were able to penetrate the Russian market after the fall of the Soviet Union.

"You don't take the newcomers seriously because they modify an existing product, yet you take the 737NG/RE (essentially a derivative of an existing product) seriously?"

When you quit placing words in my mouth maybe I'll start taking you seriously as a person who isn't a fanboy trying to talk about the market like as if you're an expert. Yes, generally I'll give more credit to the person who's modifying HIS OWN PRODUCT over somebody who's entire commercial reputation depends on REVERSE ENGINEERING EXISTING PRODUCTS.

Have you seen the overall Chinese aviation industry? It's a mash of Russian equipment, Russian equipment that's been reverse engineered, a couple of things that European countries licensed them to produce (Which were consequently reverse engineered in the process usually), and then a handful of things that China can actually call their own that people still dispute as being the norm.

"And yet that "niche" is worth over 1100 orders. I've hear many personal accounts of how great they are in comparison to some of what's out there right now (including the 737NG and A320)."

I was referring to the early ERJs genius, and I will admit I've heard good accounts of those particular jets. The new ERJs, not so much.

18
General Chat / AM Livery Competition Round 3 Voting
« on: August 18, 2011, 07:23:30 am »
In the fashion of the last poll, we'll have the results hidden until the end of the poll. Voting will last 6 days, should be more than enough time for anybody that wants to get their vote in to do so.

Since some of the images weren't uniform in size, I figured I would post them in a different manner. The submissions are as follows;

Shawa-


AirbusL1011-


danio100-


A380YURY-


1993matias-


hay-airlines-


bolli-



Vote for the livery that you believe is best, please refrain from voting for your own livery, and good luck to all of the entrants!

19
The 737 doesn't need to be changed anymore in my opinion, because its as good as its going to get. I'd like to see Boeing prove me wrong by managing to make the 737 that much better with some sort of design change, but as far as I could tell you it's alongside the 707 and a couple other airliners as one of the most iconic aircraft out there.

As far as I've seen on the internet, you're saying that the A320NEO is beating something that doesn't really exist at this point. Boeing might have the general consensus of what it wants to do with the project internally, but the A320NEO actually has (reliable) information available. 737RE may turn out to be vaporware essentially, as it seems Boeing is currently split between enacting the RE as a program and just moving on.

I'd remind you that the 707 was also designed around (before) the 737 but doesn't suffer the problems that you state an aircraft of that age has in terms of ground clearance, but I don't think it would get us anywhere judging by your opinion that the whole plane essentially needs to be redesigned before it can be made "competitive"..

"Of course, the optimal thing would be to design an all new optimised wing, that won't have the need for winglets (see the Superjet, A350, 747-8, 787)"

All of the aircraft you just listed essentially still have the winglets, as the raked wingtips are no different in my opinion.

"Alas, i don't know which airport you fly from, but just about every 737-700/800/900 and 737-300 i've seen over the past few years has been refitted with winglets. With savings of up to 4%, everyone has begun fitting them."

Tell that to my trip from Orlando to Dallas Fort Worth, both airports where I saw a considerable number of non-winglet installed 737s.

"The US market? And what about Europe, Africa, South America, Asia and Australiasia? In terms of aviation, Europe and Asia are both larger than North America. South America is catching up, and Africa is about to begin a massive growth. The Sukhoi Superjet has already been sold to a number of EU based operators, and has plenty of support outside Russia. Nevermind the fact that Ryanair has joined the Chinese to help design the C-919."

I don't know why this site insists on calling Oceania Australasia, but whatever. Last time I checked the Sukhoi Superjet had a ton of orders to leasing companies and a handful of Russian airlines. I talk about the US market because that is what is most relevant to what I'm likely to encounter, and because honestly that is where the majority of the manufacturers you brought up will have the most trouble.

"Don't underestimate Russia and China. People joked about Embraer 20 years ago, because they were Brazilian and didn't have any experience. Russia has more than enough experience building airliners for more than 90 years."

I'll start taking Russia and China seriously as soon as Russia comes out with a solid airliner that actually performs well on the global marketplace (That isn't from the Soviet era and plagued with their own problems) and when China makes something that isn't a derivative of an existing product. The way I see it with Embraer is that they're supported by their home government and fulfilled a niche market that the competition honestly couldn't keep up with because their own performance was going down the drain for whatever reason. Their newer jets (E-170+) I've heard many personal accounts of how they're rather horrible in comparison to some of what's out there right now.

I love aircraft as much as the next person, but I can at least realize that some of these manufacturers you're boosting right now don't have much marketing power outside of their home markets. I've heard enough stories about Bombardiers performing horribly in certain weather conditions, and what planes pilots hate and the reasons behind it.

20
General Chat / Re: AM Livery Competition Round 3
« on: August 18, 2011, 06:50:56 am »
Was a little bit late, but regardless.. submissions period is closed. (Decided not to enter into this one myself..)

I'll have the polling thread up here pretty soon.

21
Game Strategy / Re: Trying to understand aircraft differences
« on: August 16, 2011, 08:32:06 pm »
The extra speed is worth the extra 800 000€. As Cipher said, it could mean the difference between a .5 and 1 freq route, especially when flying far. And at those low speeds, a difference of 25 knots is noticeable.

Even though it says the speed is in knots, I think it is in mph. That is because all range numbers are in miles, not nautical miles.
Speed is measured in knots ingame, and the range numbers all have "NM" tags next to them, so I'd presume that the game measures in nautical miles as well..

22
Game Strategy / Re: Trying to understand aircraft differences
« on: August 16, 2011, 04:55:07 am »
All of the speed figures in the game are in knots, which is nautical miles per hour..

If you're operating the aircraft towards the outer reaches of the range it has, you'll start to notice the difference in speed. It could mean the difference between a .5 and a 1 frequency flight when you start packing the routes together.

If you're spamming short range routes out of an airport though, you probably won't notice the difference.

23
Game Strategy / Re: Trying to understand aircraft differences
« on: August 15, 2011, 06:29:05 am »
Personally I'd say its up to you, but if that's the best aircraft (In your opinion) within that price bracket then I'd probably go with the -400.

24
If you're trying to infer that you know better than airline CEOs simply because you have Google on your side, I'd consider that logic foolish. The internet does not make you omniscient.

I don't. I'm just saying what the airline CEOs have been saying on Google. And the airline CEOs apparently don't know much about Boeings efforts either. Southwest is extremely upset with Boeings timing.   

This isn't a defence project. It's a commercial aircraft. It's all about getting orders, and making a profit, and you don't do that by keeping it a secret.


Just face it, the A320 has more to gain in terms of improvements. The 737 will need an extended nose gear (more weight and an un-aerodynamic fairing under the nose) to fit a smaller and less efficient engine. The facts are simple, you don't need Boeing or some other source to tell you that.

  • Winglets save 3.5%, a gain only the A320 can get, as the 737 already relies on them.
  • The engines will save about 15%, and will be fitted to both. But the 737 will have to rely on a slightly smaller version (Even with a lengthened L/G, the fan will have to be smaller)
  • The A320 is an older design than the 737NG, and hence is open to more modifications that already feature on the 737
 

The 737RE will not only have to compete with the A320NEO, but also the all new composite United Aircraft MS-21, and the all new Comac C-919. The C-series, ARJ-21, Mitsubishi RJ, E-jet and the Sukhoi Superjet will be pushing from below. 

Funny thing is that CEOs don't disclose all of their positions and thoughts to the general public, it doesn't make business sense to do so. Aside from that, there's also this thing called a Non-Disclosure Agreement, which in the event that Boeing wanted to keep the development of something on the low key, they could sign people into. Why would they want to do this (In spite of everything that you've said)? Who knows. You consider it a disadvantage because it gives airlines more time to order the NEO, it could play into Boeing's hands if the B737RE or new airliner takes longer to hit the presses because Airbus is playing its entire hand with the NEO. They can't have anything up their sleeves with how much they've been (apparently) giving away, and if you ask me that puts the ball in Boeing's court.

Who says that the 737RE needs all of the things that you listed? From what Westjet was posting earlier, its entirely possible that the RE could get away with an improved engine without clearance issues. Boeing still has the raked wingtip design that they've been using in the 767 and 787 that they could bring over to the 737 (If the costs outweighed the benefits), but apparently the 737 isn't as "reliant" on the winglets since there's still a good number of 37s without the winglets (At least the last time I was to an airport it seemed the number of winglet installed aircraft equaled the number of aircraft without winglets.)

Unlike you I wouldn't even consider the NEO or RE a new design, it just seems like an upgrade package for both aircraft from what I've seen/heard. So of course if Airbus wanted the contents of said package could be changed up (At the cost of additional research fees, which is passed on to customers via higher procurement costs), the same could be said of the RE should the NEO come up with anything that's actually threatening to the existence of the 737 in the market.

From what I've been reading, it seems that most of what you listed isn't even a factor to Boeing. The most prominent of what you posted to me (In being rather unrealistic) is the Sukhoi Superjet, they don't have the infrastructure in the Americas to export to any US Airlines. They got a chance through the KC-X contract to get their foot in the door, but their offer was rejected due to deadlines not being met supposedly. In the past you've shot down the C-Series', so I don't see why that's a factor now, and I wouldn't consider the E-Series a competitor to the 737. The rest of what you listed are products that alike the Sukhoi Superjet will likely not see support outside of their regional markets, so honestly who cares. If they do become prominent in their industries, Boeing has apparently seen fit to leave that sector open and seems to instead be focusing on the long range market (With the 6-8 range of the 7X7s, along with the 747-8).

Maybe Boeing has realized that competition is heating up within the regional-short haul market and that its already in a rather bad spot and decided to fallout of the market. I can't say for certain, I don't work the design boards at Boeing. (And don't say they haven't announced anything new again, they've had projects rumored to in the past for the replacement of the 737 and its entirely possible that they're going now.)

25
Still say that there's something we probably don't know about what's going on..

Which also means that the airlines don't know anything. Boeing can't keep something as ambitious as a new plane a secret.

The airlines know that the NEO is rolling. The longer they wait before ordering the NEO, the longer they will need to wait until they can get it. And they have serious doubts about what Boeing can deliver.

If you're trying to infer that you know better than airline CEOs simply because you have Google on your side, I'd consider that logic foolish. The internet does not make you omniscient.

26
General Chat / AM Livery Competition Round 3
« on: August 10, 2011, 09:34:40 pm »
Since everybody's apparently taken the route of bickering amongst eachother instead of actually starting it, I'll take the initiative to do so..



Airline Mogul Livery Competition Round 3[/u]

Welcome to Round Three of the competition! The goal of this round is to make a retro styled livery of your own airline (Not a real life airline). All of the usual rules will apply (Must be your own work, can enter only one livery), and entries for this competition will close in one week (8/17/11 by my clock)

Hopefully this should get some activity back to this forum, but who knows..

27
Still say that there's something we probably don't know about what's going on..

28
I'm interested in joining...

hey great.. just look for PW#2024 and join... there is no password at this time...

see you in world
Thought there was a password, but I managed to get in today. Looking forward to what this world will entail, got burnt out of a modern day world rather quickly because there wasn't much more to do..

29
I'm interested in joining...

30
"They are not really knowledgable about this issue. Which is shocking since they actually work in the industry. Many of my points can be proven through a simple search on the internet."

I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the opinions that I've read elsewhere regarding the Airbus family. While many of them are perspectives from pilots and ground crew, they are the people actually using the planes, while most of what you're going to find on the internet is going to be some sort of aviation "expert" or marketing team member's writings to attempt to convince you one way or another on what's better.

If anything, the A320 family "selling out" faster doesn't mean that they have more longevity than the 737 family, it could mean the exact opposite. Sure there could be aircraft out there serving just as long as the Boeings, but why are there so many orders in comparison to Boeing if the aircraft are supposedly just as reliable? (Keep in mind that I'm writing this without researching it like you have apparently, too many demands on my time ATM)

"I don't know what you mean about A320's in reserve. Airbus doesn't build them unless somebody buys them."

Hence why I said that I was questionable about when they said that.

"Not relevant in aviation. You need to take into account financing and costs of operating the product over time."

Yea, and they made the point that Airbus is more fair to airlines that just want to get out there, make a short dash at profits, and then declare bankruptcy shortly after. Airlines that don't intend to be around by the time their aircraft start wearing out, etc.. Additionally it seems that at least for some airlines keeping their older Boeings is more affordable than buying new ones or buying other aircraft, so it would seem that the 737 should have some sort of edge.

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